Prediction: The End of Growth

Prediction: The End of Growth

Status: Occurring

Shrinking pains.

You know how kids suddenly feel their shoes get too snug or pants too short? Citizens of mature economies are experiencing the exact opposite.

In an economy built for growth, we’re confronted with a trim new reality of high debt, low growth. It’s a pattern that runs through everything:

Lower birth rates and aging population

Over 40 years of stagnating incomes

Growing corporate profits without growth in revenue, employment, or income

Decline in consumer and business lending

Ludicrous increases in the cost of education, housing, and healthcare that eat away at all other types of consumer spending

The finance industry, which doesn’t produce a single futon or cupcake,consumes more and more of the economy.

The Prosperity Paradox, Jun 2014

What Happened

Declining Population Could Reduce Global Economic Growth By 40% – WSJ, Jan 2015 (to read, right click and open in incognito window)

The Demographics of Stagnation or text via Evernote, Feb 2016

Retirement fund managers have made a huge mistake by assuming 7% is an average return, Jul 2018

Projecting 7% returns is a fantasy. Our problem isn’t overpopulation, it’s aging/population collapse. But only *IF* we bind ourselves to old rules & assumptions.